Friday, November 11, 2022

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UFC 281: Esparza vs Zhang Picks and Predictions

Carla Esparza and Zhang Weili are doing battle in one in all two championship bouts on the UFC 281 betting card. Whereas Esparza might be able to take it the gap, our UFC 281 betting picks count on Magnum to come back away victorious.

Carla Esparza vs. Zhang Weili is one in all two championship bouts on the principle card of UFC 281 betting on November 12. 

Esparza will likely be defending her strawweight title after a controversial win earlier this 12 months whereas Zhang will attempt to reclaim the belt she previously held.

UFC odds for this bout have seen large motion with the challenger Zhang opening as a -150 favourite and shifting all the best way to -400 with Esparza now at +300.

Listed here are my finest free Esparza vs Zhang picks and predictions for Saturday, November 12 from Madison Sq. Backyard in New York.

Esparza vs Zhang battle odds

Esparza vs Zhang technique of victory odds

Technique of Victory Carla Esparza Zhang Weili
To win by KO/TKO +1,500 +125
To win by Factors +500 +195
To win by Submission +1,500 +1,100
Draw +5,000 +5,000

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook on November 9, 2022.

Esparza vs Zhang picks

Click on on every prediction to leap to the complete evaluation.

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Esparza vs Zhang betting preview

Carla “The Cookie Monster” Esparza is on a six-fight successful streak and is coming off a victory in opposition to Rosa Namajunas the place she reclaimed the Ladies’s strawweight championship after successful the inaugural title all the best way again in 2014.

Nevertheless, that bout in opposition to Namajunas was a horrible battle that noticed each fighters land a complete of simply 67 strikes over 25 minutes and drew jeers from the gang. Esparza regarded a lot better in her earlier battle in opposition to Yan Xiaonan final 12 months when had greater than seven minutes of management time and completed Yan by floor and pound within the second spherical.  

With a background as an NAIA All-American wrestler and a brown belt in BJJ, the 35-year-old prefers to take issues to the mat the place she will be able to depend on her wrestling and prime stress to grind out wins.

Covers UFC 281 Betting Evaluation

Zhang “Magnum” Weili is trying to turn out to be the subsequent two-time strawweight champ after starching Joanna Jedrzejczyk with a spinning back-fist in June, actually sending her into retirement. 

Zhang initially received the 115-pound belt by knocking out Jessica Andrade within the first spherical in 2019. She then efficiently defended her belt in her first showdown with Jedrzejczyk in 2020 in a 25-minute warfare that’s broadly thought-about the best girls’s battle of all time.

Zhang promptly misplaced the championship by getting knocked out by a head kick from Namajunas her subsequent day trip. She rematched in opposition to Namajunas final November and whereas it was a a lot nearer battle she once more misplaced, this time by break up determination. 

Magnum combines highly effective putting and relentless stress with formidable wrestling skill and brutal ground-and-pound.

Esparza vs Zhang story of the tape

Carla Esparza   Zhang Weili
35 Age 33
5-foot-1 Top 5-foot-4
115 lbs Weight 116 lbs
63 inches Attain 63 inches
20-6-0 (4 KO) Document 22-3-0 (11 KO)

Esparza vs Zhang UFC prediction and finest wager

Our prediction is compiled from the evaluation of the fighters and is a sign of who we’re leaning with to win this bout.
Our greatest wager is the play that we like essentially the most for this battle or the place essentially the most worth lies, and is the place we’d put a few of our bankroll behind.

Esparza is an excellent offensive wrestler however — apart from her bout in opposition to Yan — she sometimes would not do a lot as soon as the battle will get to the mat. That will not have the ability to get the job accomplished in opposition to a stronger fighter in Zhang, who’s fairly sturdy within the wrestling division herself. 

On the subject of the putting exchanges, Zhang can have an enormous benefit together with her quantity, velocity, stress, and energy.

We have seen Esparza outclassed on her ft earlier than which normally leads to her spamming desperation takedown makes an attempt. That may put her in a nasty spot in opposition to Zhang, who may be very harmful together with her soiled boxing and clinch work. 

Zhang has too many instruments offensively for Esparza to deal with and whereas there was tons of worth backing her on the moneyline when odds first hit the board, that worth has dried up by now. Think about one other play to get worth on this one. 

Prediction: Zhang moneyline (-340 at DraftKings)

Zhang has loopy ending energy for this division which is why she’s been put in at +120 to win by KO/TKO. That stated, half of her eight UFC fights have gone the gap and Esparza goes to attempt to flip this right into a grind together with her grappling skill. 

Esparza is not going to face and bang together with her for 25 minutes as Jedrzejczyk did of their first battle again in 2020. As an alternative, the Cookie Monster will attempt to gradual this battle down, implement her wrestling, and lay and pray as a lot as attainable to keep away from these heavy palms. 

Ten of Esparza’s earlier 12 fights have gone the gap and even when she absorbs harm, she ought to have the ability to get this battle to the bottom at instances and drag out rounds.

That places the betting worth on backing Zhang to win by determination. 

Choose: Zhang by determination (+200 at bet365)

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