Monday, October 3, 2022

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UFC 274 gambling preview: Best bets, parlays, and long shot of the week

The UFC returns this weekend with one other pay-per-view providing, UFC 274, which fits down on the Footprint Middle in Phoenix on Saturday. As is customary with pay-per-view occasions, the UFC has stacked the cardboard with two title fights and a bevy of different high-profile matchups. Within the co-main occasion, Rose Namajunas will defend her strawweight title in a rematch with inaugural champion Carla Esparza. Then in the primary occasion, light-weight champion Charles Oliveira seems to silence the final of his doubters when he defends his belt towards former interim champion Justin Gaethje. We’ve obtained 15 fights this weekend, and loads of alternative to get some motion down, so let’s get to it.

As at all times, all odds are courtesy of our buddies at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Mauricio Shogun Rua (Wander Roberto, Inovafoto)

Straight Bets

Mauricio Rua, +195

In all honesty, that is most likely a dumb guess. Shogun is 40 years outdated and has been washed for a minimum of 5 years — however I can’t assist it, as a result of for as washed as Shogun could also be, so is Ovince Saint Preux! In his most up-to-date combat, OSP misplaced to Tanner Boser as a result of he merely didn’t do something. He landed 9 complete strikes in over seven minutes of preventing. That’s, effectively … it’s not good. Saint Preux is clearly on the decline, and whereas he might have extra juice left than Shogun, OSP’s model is one that can fall off drastically as his athleticism wanes. Add in that Shogun nonetheless hits like a drunken moose and doubtless has a cardio benefit — and with this form of line, I’m keen to take a flier on one remaining second of glory for the outdated guard. Delight By no means Die.

Randy Brown, +105

This can be a sweaty-palm play, however one I nonetheless really feel OK about. Randy Brown is longer, sooner, and a greater striker than Khaos Williams, and in a combat that’s more likely to happen totally on the toes, that each one ought to serve him effectively. The principle considerations listed below are that Williams has an incredible chin, hits like an indignant elephant, and has good low kicks (a weak point of Brown’s). However he additionally will get reckless quite a lot of occasions, and I imagine Brown can capitalize on that, particularly given his pure bodily benefits. At plus-money, there’s worth right here.

Marcos Rogerio de Lima, +120

One other sweaty-palm combat. Betting on dangerous heavyweight MMA is rarely the simplest factor on this planet to do, however there are sufficient issues working in RDL’s favor right here that I imagine this can be a worth play. That is Blagoy Ivanov’s first combat in two years, and in his final day trip, he didn’t look nice. He’s lumbering and never an particularly large hitter for the load class. De Lima, in the meantime, is coming off the very best efficiency of his profession and appears to be lastly placing issues collectively. The bottom recreation is at all times a priority, however the velocity benefit needs to be so outstanding for him that I feel RDL can keep away from getting taken down and get the arms going early, even towards an iron-headed man like Ivanov.

Justin Gaethje

Justin Gaethje
Esther Lin, MMA Preventing

Prop Bets

Justin Gaethje by KO/TKO, +200

Justin Gaethje vs. Charles Oliveira is a two-outcome combat: Both Oliveira can submit Gaethje, or he will get knocked out. What is going to decide which of these outcomes prevails is the wrestling, and whereas Oliveira is a strong takedown artist, Gaethje is a greater takedown defender. Oliveira just isn’t the wrestler Khabib Nurmagomedov is, and I see this combat in the end trying like Oliveira vs. Michael Chandler, solely with Gaethje ending the job.

Rose Namajunas by KO/TKO, +300

Merely put, I feel Rose goes to run over Carla Esparza on this rematch. Esparza’s present successful streak is just a little little bit of smoke and mirrors as she ought to’ve misplaced a minimum of a kind of fights, and arguably misplaced three of them. Rose, in the meantime, has been preventing and beating extra bodily imposing and, frankly, tough competitors, and she or he’s nonetheless creating. Esparza just isn’t wherever close to adequate to strike with Rose for prolonged durations, and although Namajunas isn’t the very best defensive wrestler on this planet, she’s adequate to maintain issues upright for probably the most half. From there, Esparza is a sitting duck.

Michael Chandler/Tony Ferguson Over 1.5 Rounds, -160

Tony Ferguson actually seems to be on the crispier facet of cooked, however for all his latest struggles, Ferguson’s chin has not been the issue. He’s slower and his reflexes have dropped off, however he stays a supremely conditioned athlete and exceedingly sturdy. Chandler just isn’t going to have the ability to haymaker “El Cucuy” out of there early, and so this one ought to make it previous the midway mark.

Joe Lauzon to win in Spherical 1, +800

For his complete profession, Joe Lauzon has been a barnstormer. The person begins fights with weapons blazing, and consequently, 18 of his 28 profession victories have come within the first spherical. Conversely, Donald Cerrone has lengthy been often called a gradual starter in MMA, with seven of his 16 profession losses coming within the first spherical. This can be a combat between two guys who’re effectively past their primes, however Lauzon actually regarded higher than Cerrone did their final occasions out, and given how their careers have gone, there’s worth in a play on this juiced line.

MMA: NOV 06 UFC 268

Picture by Louis Grasse/PxImages/Icon Sportswire through Getty Photos

Parlay of the Week

Rose Namajunas, -200

As talked about above, I feel Namajunas goes to roll over Esparza this week. Actually, she’s my most assured guess, and I feel the most secure, smartest plan of action is to easily guess her straight at these odds. However the individuals love parlays, and that is as strong of a parlay piece as I feel you will discover. I simply don’t see Rose shedding this one.

Chiasson/Dumont Struggle To Go To Resolution, -200

Chiasson and Dumont have every solely been stopped as soon as of their careers, and I don’t see both lady including a second one on Saturday. That is most likely going to be quite a lot of Dumont jabbing Chiasson for quarter-hour.

Parlay these two bets collectively for +125 odds.

Tony Ferguson

Tony Ferguson
Esther Lin, MMA Preventing

Lengthy Shot of the Week

Tony Ferguson by Submission, +1400

Tony Ferguson might be going to lose this combat. He hasn’t received a spherical in almost three years, and at 38 years outdated, he’s clearly previous his peak. That being stated, Michael Chandler just isn’t the identical form of fighter — neither is he nearly as good — as the lads Ferguson has been shedding to. It’s totally doable that Chandler simply repeatedly takes Ferguson down and holds him there. However I’ve a sense that Chandler goes to attempt to blow by way of Ferguson, which is able to create some possibilities for “El Cucuy” to sink in his well-known D’Arce choke and turn into the primary man to submit Chandler.

Wrap Up

In case you had been unaware, The MMA Hour’s Conner Burks and I have a new gambling podcast on the MMA Fighting podcast network called “No Bets Barred!” Each week we might be breaking down our performs on the occasion and simply typically chopping it up in regards to the combat playing cards earlier than and behind us. Give it a pay attention and let’s do the rattling factor this weekend.

Good luck y’all, and gamble responsibly!

All data on this article is offered to readers of MMA Preventing for leisure, information, and amusement functions solely. It’s the accountability of the reader to study and abide by on-line playing legal guidelines of their area earlier than inserting any on-line sports activities betting wagers.

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