Thursday, November 10, 2022

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Too many unknowns after wild backstage brawl at presser

LAS VEGAS — Betting on fights is tough sufficient when you’ve got the entire information at your disposal. Even if you suppose know the fighters, perceive the how the kinds mesh and have entry to all of the statistics, it’s nonetheless extraordinarily troublesome to show a revenue betting MMA.

However add in an enormous component of uncertainty and solely a idiot would make greater than a pleasant wager on the fights.

And that’s how I’m trying on the wagering alternatives within the prime three fights on the invoice at UFC 279 on Saturday at T-Cellular Enviornment. After a huge backstage brawl forced the cancellation of Thursday’s news conference, there are too many unknowns to knowledgeably guess on the Nate Diaz-Khamzat Chimaev fight or both the Kevin Holland-Daniel Rodriguez battle or the Tony Ferguson-Li Jingliang battle.

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UFC president Dana White instructed reporters no accidents had been sustained. However fighters are very reticent to speak about accidents earlier than the battle, and a lot was taking place so quick backstage that White couldn’t ensure of all of the information.

What if a fighter broke a hand, or had a a lot smaller damage like a twisted knee? They don’t receives a commission in the event that they don’t battle and you may make certain that these fighters are going to maintain mum and battle it doesn’t matter what.

I’ve no proof that it occurred, however listening to White describe what occurred and having seen many of those incidents through the years, it’s straightforward to think about one thing might have occurred to go away one, or extra, of them in a less-than-perfect means.

LAS VEGAS, NEVADA - SEPTEMBER 08: (L-R) Opponents Kevin Holland and Daniel Rodriguez face off during the UFC 279 press conference at MGM Grand Garden Arena on September 08, 2022 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC)

Kevin Holland and Daniel Rodriguez confronted off at Thursday’s UFC 279 press convention shortly earlier than it was canceled. (Photograph by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC)

Chimaev is now down to a -1000 favorite at BetMGM in the primary occasion. However that implies that as a way to make a $100 revenue, a bettor must threat $1,000. And in the event you aren’t utterly offered that Chimaev escaped the brawl, skirmish or disagreement (no matter you need to name it) unscathed, how might you wager vital cash on him?

For Diaz to win the battle, every little thing was going to must go completely for him. But when he twisted a knee or rolled an ankle, would you be assured in him as the most important underdog on the cardboard in pulling the upset.

The identical is true of Ferguson-Jingliang and Holland-Rodriguez.

In the primary occasion, I just like the battle ending within the second spherical at +275. I received’t play that now in mild of the brawl.

I favored Ferguson as a +240 underdog to finish his shedding streak and defeat Jingliang, however I’ll now move that.

I used to be going to guess on Holland at -200 and the battle going the gap at +130, however these are out the window now.

Generally the neatest play isn’t any play. And if you’re confronted with uncertainty like this, the clever transfer could also be to avoid wasting the cash you deliberate to guess on this present and add it to a different card’s bankroll.

The one battle I like is Norma Dumont to defeat Danyelle Wolf by resolution at -120 on the preliminary card. I’ve a slight lean to Johnny Walker as a +165 underdog play to defeat Ion Cutelaba, who’s a -200 favourite.

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