LAS VEGAS — Betting on fights is difficult sufficient when you have got all the info at your disposal. Even while you assume know the fighters, perceive the how the kinds mesh and have entry to all of the statistics, it’s nonetheless extraordinarily tough to show a revenue betting MMA.
However add in an enormous component of uncertainty and solely a idiot would make greater than a pleasant wager on the fights.
And that’s how I’m wanting on the wagering alternatives within the high three fights on the invoice at UFC 279 on Saturday at T-Cell Enviornment. After a huge backstage brawl forced the cancellation of Thursday’s news conference, there are too many unknowns to knowledgeably wager on the Nate Diaz-Khamzat Chimaev fight or both the Kevin Holland-Daniel Rodriguez combat or the Tony Ferguson-Li Jingliang combat.
UFC president Dana White instructed reporters no accidents had been sustained. However fighters are very reticent to speak about accidents earlier than the combat, and a lot was occurring so quick backstage that White couldn’t make certain of all of the info.
What if a fighter broke a hand, or had a a lot smaller harm like a twisted knee? They don’t receives a commission in the event that they don’t combat and you’ll make certain that these fighters are going to maintain mum and combat it doesn’t matter what.
I’ve no proof that it occurred, however listening to White describe what occurred and having seen many of those incidents through the years, it’s straightforward to think about one thing might have occurred to depart one, or extra, of them in a less-than-perfect approach.
Chimaev is now down to a -1000 favorite at BetMGM in the primary occasion. However that implies that in an effort to make a $100 revenue, a bettor must threat $1,000. And for those who aren’t utterly bought that Chimaev escaped the brawl, skirmish or disagreement (no matter you wish to name it) unscathed, how might you wager vital cash on him?
For Diaz to win the combat, the whole lot was going to must go completely for him. But when he twisted a knee or rolled an ankle, would you be assured in him as the largest underdog on the cardboard in pulling the upset.
The identical is true of Ferguson-Jingliang and Holland-Rodriguez.
In the primary occasion, I just like the combat ending within the second spherical at +275. I received’t play that now in mild of the brawl.
I preferred Ferguson as a +240 underdog to finish his shedding streak and defeat Jingliang, however I’ll now cross that.
I used to be going to wager on Holland at -200 and the combat going the space at +130, however these are out the window now.
Typically the neatest play is not any play. And while you’re confronted with uncertainty like this, the smart transfer could also be to save lots of the cash you deliberate to wager on this present and add it to a different card’s bankroll.
The one combat I like is Norma Dumont to defeat Danyelle Wolf by choice at -120 on the preliminary card. I’ve a slight lean to Johnny Walker as a +165 underdog play to defeat Ion Cutelaba, who’s a -200 favourite.