Tuesday, November 15, 2022

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Significant Upside for This Underdog (Saturday, September 10)

Denis Tiuliulin vs. Jamie Pickett Odds

Tiuliulin Odds
Pickett Odds
2.5 (-140 / +100)
T-Cell Enviornment in Las Vegas
8:30 p.m. ET
Odds as of Friday and by way of BetMGM.

Denis Tiuliulin and Jamie Pickett might be preventing for his or her jobs once they conflict on Saturday’s UFC 279 preliminary card.

The middleweights had been initially scheduled to fulfill in July, in order that they’ve had just a little additional time to arrange for this matchup, the place each fighters look to rebound from current setbacks.

Oddsmakers have it shut, however how does it play out? Let’s break it down.

Story of the Tape

Tiuliulin Pickett
File 10-6 13-7
Avg. Battle Time 6:58 9:34
Top 6’1″ 6’2″
Weight (kilos) 185 lbs. 185 lbs.
Attain (inches) 77″ 80″
Stance Orthodox Orthodox
Date of beginning 5/17/1988 8/29/1988
Sig Strikes Per Min 4.45 2.89
SS Accuracy 37% 50%
SS Absorbed Per Min 6.03 3.97
SS Protection 37% 46%
Take Down Avg 0.00 1.57
TD Acc 0% 47%
TD Def 33% 64%
Submission Avg 0.0 0.2

Tiuliulin is my favourite underdog guess on Saturday’s card. Regardless of a three-inch attain discrepancy, he must be the superior striker in a matchup with Pickett, who doesn’t take advantage of his bodily presents.

Pickett wins fights by controlling his opponents towards the cage for lengthy stretches, stalling, and carrying them down till he can generate a takedown. Whereas Tiuliulin has struggled with grapplers all through his profession, he regarded competent in his matchup with a high-level prospect in his UFC debut. Pickett doubtless represents a big step down in competitors.

Furthermore, Pickett’s control-oriented fashion has change into much less efficient as judges prioritize injury over management. I count on Tiuliulin to win minutes anytime these fighters are within the heart of the octagon and to land essentially the most impactful strike of every spherical.

Whereas it’s attainable that Tiuliulin will get held towards the fence for 80% of the combat, he nonetheless could land the largest strike in every spherical and swing the judges in his favor.

And if he can deny these clinch positions and preserve this combat at a distance, he could seem like a hindsight favourite.

Tiuliulin vs. Pickett Decide

Pickett doubtless must win a detailed choice whereas Tiuliulin seemingly possesses the numerous upside on this combat, and I give him extra ending fairness too.

I projected Tiuliulin as a small favourite on this matchup, and I might guess his moneyline at any plus-money worth.

Furthermore, I present worth in his knockout prop (projected +286, listed +380 at Gas), which might be price a poke.

Nevertheless, I don’t see worth on both facet of the whole.

The Decide: Denis Tiuliulin (+115, 0.5u at Caesars)

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