There isn’t a doubting Diaz’s resiliency and toughness. Famed MMA coach Firas Zahabi as soon as described Diaz as such, “In case you put him in a struggle the place there is no such thing as a time restrict, I believe he beats 99 % of fighters. You’ll be able to’t sub him. You’ll be able to’t end him. The man doesn’t cease strolling ahead. He places quantity on you. He’s the scariest, for my part, avenue fighter in MMA. Nate Diaz is among the scariest avenue fighters.”
That’s an apt description and one which has made Diaz probably the most common fighters to step contained in the UFC octagon.
Diaz’s skill to soak up harm and maintain coming ahead is sort of cartoon-like. He’s the character who will get knocked down, dusts himself off, shakes his head and punches himself within the chin to clear the cobwebs earlier than he smiles by a masks of blood and invitations his opponent to attempt once more — and more durable.
Diaz’s ruggedness makes the stats that comply with scary in terms of his upcoming September 10 bout towards Chimaev.
Chimaev lands 7.89 important strikes per minute
There is just one fighter — lively or retired — who has landed extra important strikes per minute than Chimaev’s 7.89 — that’s Daniel Rodriguez at 8.24 important strikes per minute. There’s additionally no arguing that Chimaev’s strikes are very important. These aren’t Colby Covington kind strikes designed to maintain an opponent occupied and busy throwing up protection. No, Chimaev intends to do harm and finish fights along with his efforts and he has accomplished that to the tune of six knockout wins in his profession.
Diaz can soak up strikes with the very best of them, however his skill to take action with out hitting the mat must be questioned at welterweight. Conor McGregor knocked him down 3 times at UFC 202 and Jorge Masvidal put him on the deck twice at UFC 244. Earlier than that, Diaz was knocked down simply 4 occasions in 22 whole UFC contests.
Diaz absorbed 353 important strikes in his latest losses to Leon Edwards, Masvidal and McGregor.
To place the above quantity in context, Diaz absorbed 319 whole important strikes in his first 14 UFC fights. That quantity elevated to 415 after he took 96 important strikes in a win over Donald Cerrone at UFC 141.
Diaz is getting hit extra and shedding extra over the previous few years. That’s a worrisome prospect forward of UFC 279.
Chimaev’s important hanging accuracy is 59.8 %
Not solely is Chimaev lively, he’s correct. He ranks tenth in UFC historical past in important hanging accuracy at 59.8 %, which places him seventh amongst lively UFC fighters.
Diaz had a hanging protection of 42 % towards Edwards, 38 % vs. Masvidal, 49 % in his win over Anthony Pettis and 43 % in his UFC 202 loss to McGregor. These numbers are all nicely beneath his profession defensive common of 52 %.
Chimaev has a plus 3.59 hanging differential
Chimaev’s excessive output and accuracy equate to an infinite benefit in hanging differential. Solely 4 fighters have a better hanging differential than Chimaev and two of these opponents — Cris Cyborg and Cain Velasquez are not lively UFC combatants. As for lively fighters, solely Tom Aspinall (plus 4.54) and Sean O’Malley (plus 4.49) have higher hanging differential numbers than Chimaev.
With Diaz’s defensive numbers slipping and the variety of important strikes his opponents land towards him growing, the hanging differential quantity doesn’t bode nicely for Diaz on this matchup.
What does all of it imply?
If I’m to extrapolate one thing from these numbers, it will be that Diaz is in for a really making an attempt time when he faces Chimaev on September 10 in Las Vegas. Barring a wholesale change in combating types from each males, Diaz goes to get tagged — loads. Count on his toughness and resiliency to be put to the check.
There’s additionally the prospect that the Nevada State Athletic Fee docs will likely be known as in to assess the cuts that Diaz is prone to maintain on this struggle and take into account his skill to soak up extra harm. Additional, there’s additionally the prospect that Nick Diaz or one other member of the youthful Diaz’s nook will likely be known as to throw within the towel on this contest — one thing that has happened previously from Nick in a struggle Nate was shedding.
I do know I’m portray a dark image for the primary occasion of UFC 279, however this forecast relies on latest outcomes and the numbers. With that being stated, if there may be one fighter on the UFC roster who might flip issues the other way up and shock the MMA world, it’s Nate Diaz.